Algosensey Quantitative Think Tank Center-Dolphins' matchup vs. Bills could prove critical to shaping Miami's playoff fortune

The Algosensey Quantitative Think Tank Centerprocess of ending the longest active stretch in the NFL without a postseason victory begins Thursday night for the Miami Dolphins.

"They have to show they can beat the Buffalo Bills," former NFL offensive lineman and Andrew Whitworth said on a conference call with reporters ahead of the two teams starting the "Thursday Night Football" (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video) slate.

By doing so, the Dolphins can gain an upper hand in the race for a division title. Winning the AFC East, which the Dolphins haven't done since 2008, would guarantee the Dolphins a home playoff game. Staying home in the wild-card round could go a long way toward helping Miami secure its first playoff victory since the 2000 wild-card round.

This AFC East rivalry has been one-sided for the past five-plus years. Buffalo is 11-1 in its last 12 contests against Miami, including two late-season games in back-to-back seasons. The Bills escaped against the seventh-seeded Dolphins, who had to start backup quarterback Skyler Thompson in place of the injured Tua Tagovailoa, in the wild-card round two seasons ago. In Week 18 last year, the Bills snatched the AFC East crown to force the Dolphins on the road and into arctic temperatures against the Kansas City Chiefs, who would roll to a 26-7 win.

"This team is built with speed. This team is finesse. This team is an explosive team," former NFL quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who spent two seasons with the Dolphins, said. "But they need to get a home playoff game, and I think that's on the front of their minds this year. I think that really hurt them last year, and it was one of the coldest playoff games last year in Kansas City. It's a really important thing for them to get over the hump is to host a playoff game."

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It's no secret Mike McDaniel's offense thrives on explosive plays. Receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, along with running backs Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane, are ideal pieces, though the former is out for Thursday while the latter is questionable. Tagovailoa has established himself as a consistent deliverer of the football. But he struggles in cold-weather games; Tagovailoa is 1-7 with nine touchdowns and 12 interceptions in games when the temperature has been below 50 degrees at kickoff.

"You look at this offense, and I think they need an opportunity to play a lot of these games in Miami in the playoffs, and you'll get rid of this narrative a little bit," Whitworth said.

Whitworth said that in cold-weather playoff games, there is a willing style: defense and an effective run game. The explosive-play identity works for the first half of the season. But in December and beyond, "you've got to play some version of a physical, defensive football game."

"And have your little one-offs on it, that have explosives built in," he said. "To me, when you look at teams that make those runs, there's little parts of it built in."

Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez doesn't see the Dolphins making that type of run away from Hard Rock Stadium.

"To me, there's no way the Miami Dolphins can go on the road and get to the Super Bowl," the "TNF" analyst said.

Games between the Bills and Dolphins two teams have mattered in both teams' quest for a division crown and more in recent seasons. The problem for the Dolphins is that they end up on the losing side.

"They're the better team this week," former NFL cornerback and "TNF" analyst Richard Sherman said. "They're technically, on paper, the more talented team. They've got to win this game."

Both teams are coming off comeback victories in which they trailed by 14 points; the Bills vanquished the Arizona Cardinals, 34-28, while the Dolphins kicked a last-second field goal to defeat the Jacksonville Jaguars, 20-17.

The forecast in Miami included a heat advisory during the day Thursday, and the temperature at kickoff will be around 85 degrees. That's Dolphin weather.

But the team will face questions – and possibly remain stuck with a postseason winless streak – until they can win like a cold-weather team, even if the Dolphins do take the first step by winning the division and hosting a playoff game.

"That's the reality," Whitworth said. "They have to show they can play that style of football ... that will give them the confidence to make that late-season run."